Mortgage rates put an end to the most recent spike that followed last Friday's jobs report. Most of the upward movement happened on Friday, but yesterday offered a modest aftershock. Those two days brought the top tier 30yr fixed rate up to 6.68 from 6.58 on Thursday. Today's average remained perfectly flat at 6.68%. War-related headlines had periodic impacts on both oil prices and the bond/rate market. The scariest moment of the day for rates followed a headline that Iran had shot down a U.S. helicopter. Trump posted that the U.S. must respond to that attack, but subsequent comments minimized the initial sense of urgency. Oil prices definitely bounced higher on the news, but bonds/rates were able to hold their ground without forcing mortgage lenders to raise rates in the afternoon. Tomorrow brings the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the earlier of the two official government inflation reports on consumer-level prices. The market is already priced for the median economic forecast, as always. If the actual numbers come in much higher or lower than those forecasts, it could cause volatility for rates in either direction (i.e. higher inflation = higher rates and vice versa).
“Rob, have you heard that retail and DTC lenders have stepped up their training and monitoring of loan officers?” Absolutely. The same granular examination that is applied to borrowers is being applied to LOs, and not only with credit checks and background searches. Originators are expensive, as are leads, and the analysis of LO performance is critical. How do you train LOs, and how are they overcoming objections? I recently attended an Insellerate event where Aithena was demonstrated: a real-time AI voice “call with a borrower” for training. It was impressive! (No, this is not a paid ad.) We’ll see more of that going forward, leading to the “Will AI systems be licensed in NMLS?” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an Interview with Google’s Sarah Armstrong on how AI search can make the home buying process feel less daunting and time-consuming by calculating finances, summarizing lengthy documents, or visualizing renovations.) Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services Quick question: When was the last time you referred business to your realtor partners? That’s part of what’s making the new lender lead program from Inside Real Estate generate industry buzz right now. The company that acquired BoomTown (now operating as BoldTrail) has quietly rolled out an exclusive lead product built for lenders focused on retail growth and agent relationships. Borrowers come into the experience actively searching for both financing guidance and a real estate agent connection, giving lenders the opportunity to engage early and collaborate with agent partners. Some lenders are reportedly seeing qualified applications and active borrower engagement within the first week. But exclusivity matters here: markets are limited, and several states are already nearing capacity. Might be worth seeing if your territory is still available: Schedule a strategy call or Email/text Mike Ensch at 562-644-2373.
For the second day in a row , bonds are starting out in modestly stronger territory, but let's hope we don't repeat yesterday's performance. That left yields even higher at the close than they were on Friday afternoon. Today's overnight gains leave yields in similar territory to yesterday morning. One redeeming technical development is that yields were willing to move below yesterday's pivot point point at 4.543. This doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it's better than a sharp stick in the eye. With limited econ data, we wait for any relevant war-related developments and, secondarily, concessionary or reactive tradeflows surrounding Treasury auctions.
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight session higher, but both moved to the lows of the day just after 9:30am. From then on, oil went broadly sideways while bonds sold off gradually. If oil had instead moved higher into the afternoon, we might not care about the bond market weakness. But as it stands, we have bond-specific defensiveness in the afternoon replacing the modicum of bond-specific bullishness we noted in the morning commentary. Not the end of the world, but not ideal.
Market Movement Recap
09:13 AM Sideways to slightly stronger. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.528
10:40 AM 10yr yields are up 2bps at 4.552 and MBS down 5 ticks (.16).
03:27 PM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.555.
The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0.02% of upward movement. Today's level of 6.68% is the 3rd highest of the past 9 months. Unlike Friday, there were no big-ticket economic reports driving volatility in rate markets. The only arguable cause and effect was seen earlier in the morning surrounding war-related headlines. These actually helped rates start the day lower than they otherwise would have. As the week continues, investors will remain tuned in to war-related developments as well as an important inflation report on Wednesday morning (the Consumer Price Index or "CPI").
Remember when talk of a “re-IPO” of Freddie and Fannie dominated residential lending news? That has certainly quieted, Pulte’s attentions are diverted, and you can certainly buy stock in them now: share prices for both are down about 30 percent this year so maybe they’re a bargain. For those new to the biz, the FHFA oversees F&F, and the FHFA’s Director is Bill Pulte who is not without his critics and videos why. Meanwhile, in more constructive videos and interviews, housing affordability dominates the conversation, but Pennymac CEO David Spector argues the real solutions extend far beyond mortgage rates. In a candid interview with Robbie Chrisman, Spector shares his views on housing supply, homeowner lock-in, regulatory reform, and how technology could fundamentally reshape the mortgage experience. Hear from a couple veteran LOs about how the lowest rate isn't always the best mortgage advice and how the best mortgage solution isn't always the obvious one. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an interview with Littler’s Colton Long on how employers are increasingly responding to employee departures with legal action over alleged non-solicitation, confidentiality, and trade secret violations.) Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services
Things got a bit worse before they got better over the weekend. 10yr yields were as high as 4.58% in overnight trading, but are now roughly unchanged in early domestic trading. Oil prices mirrored the same movement overnight, but haven't recovered as much as bond yields. In fact, bonds arguably led the move lower with a gradual rally starting just after 5am ET. Most of the drop in oil prices followed news that Israel agreed to halt today's attacks in Lebanon. There is no big ticket econ data on tap. War headlines remain relevant as does the bond market's ongoing range-finding after Friday's rout.
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout
If you had to find something reassuring to say about the bond market today, it would be that there wasn't much selling after 9am ET. Unfortunately, there was a whole lot of selling in the prior 30 minutes. Try as they might, analysts couldn't find any obvious holes in the strong picture painted by the jobs report. Stocks got completely destroyed as well--evidence of the jump in Fed rate hike expectations adding to a tech correction that was already underway. An Iran war peace deal remains the biggest market moving prospect on the horizon, but traders will be a bit more interested in labor market data going forward.
Econ Data / Events
Non Farm Payrolls (May)
172K vs 85K f'cast, 115K prev
Participation Rate (May)
61.8% vs -- f'cast, 61.8% prev
Unemployment rate mm (May)
4.3% vs 4.3% f'cast, 4.3% prev
Market Movement Recap
08:38 AM Big selling after jobs report. MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 5.7bps at 4.533
10:46 AM MBS down 18 ticks (.56) and 10yr up 6.5bps at 4.541
04:27 PM MBS down just over half a point and 10yr up 6.2bps at 4.539
Over the past three months, mortgage rate movement has been driven primarily by developments in the Iran war. It's not that war, itself, is a consideration, but rather the implications for fuel prices and inflation. Bonds care deeply about inflation and interest rates are based directly on bonds. When inflation isn't raging (or at the risk of raging), rates/bonds spend most of their time thinking about the economy. Lately, the data has been even-keeled enough that it hasn't had enough of an impact to override the war's inflation-related volatility, but today was an exception. The jobs report not only crushed expectations, but it revised the past 2 reports sharply higher as well. The net effect is that the labor market looks more like it's finding its footing (possibly even accelerating) and less like it is still in the downtrend that characterized the post-covid normalization. If all that was confusing, here's the simple version. More people got jobs than expected and the market didn't like it because it removes any argument in favor of the Fed cutting rates. Fed rates don't equal mortgage rates, but Fed rate expectations for the future cause mortgage rate movement in the present (and Treasury movement, and stock market movement, etc.). On a bright note, even after today's rout, the average lender remains under the highs seen on May 19th. The Iran war is still the most important input for rates, and a confirmed peace deal would still provide relief.
Mortgage applications eased again last week even as borrowing costs moved lower, suggesting that modest rate relief was not enough to bring borrowers back in force. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.5% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 29. The decline was led by refinance activity, which slipped 2% from the previous week. Refinance demand remained 20% higher than the same period one year ago, however, underscoring that activity is still running above 2025’s pace even as it softens week to week. Purchase demand also pulled back, though the move was more modest. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 3% week over week and was still 7% above year-ago levels. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased to 6.57% from 6.65%, but the drop was not enough to spark a meaningful pickup in demand. MBA’s Joel Kan said easing energy prices tied to developments in the Middle East helped push rates slightly lower, though “the retreat in rates... did not lead to an increase in mortgage applications.” Kan added that purchase applications were still ahead of last year’s pace, but were at their slowest weekly level since April, while refinance activity was at its weakest since last June. He also noted that the 30-year fixed rate eased to 6.57%, while the 5-year ARM rate edged higher, reflecting a flattening yield curve.
